A quick look at the college football playoff scenarios

I have long been an advocate of resume over ''eye test'' so don't shoot the messenger. I am not saying what I think the committee should do, in certain situations, only what they likely will do.

First, the Big 10 is likely to put 2 teams in the top 4. Unless the Big 10 championship is an absolute beatdown, the winner will be #1 and the loser will be #2 or #3.

The SEC champ, as always, will be overrated, especially if it is Alabama. If 1 loss Georgia wins, they will slide up to #2 and Alabama will be ejected from the playoff, as they should be. If Alabama wins, the kings and queens of SEC adoration, the CFB committee, will once again display their egregious bias by jumping this 2-loss team up from #10 to #3. Georgia's loss would slide them down but not out. They would probably land around 6 or 7.

The ACC is in danger of being left out completely. Miami is the highest ranked ACC team but does not seem to have a plausible path into the dance. Virginia grabs a spot with a win in the ACC title game but if 4 loss Duke wins that game, James Madison will likely get in along with the North Texas/Tulane winner, and the ACC blanks.

It is possible that Notre Dame jumps Oklahoma because ND has been more impressive or that they jump Ole Miss because of the Lane Kiffin drama but those two cases seem very unlikely. The most likely scenario has us staying at #9.

The Big 12 title game has BYU against Texas Tech. The potential nightmare scenario would be BYU winning that game in impressive fashion, combined with an Alabama upset of Georgia.

If that happens, the top 8 sort out something like this-

1. Ohio State/Indiana winner

2. Ohio State/Indiana loser

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. Texas A&M

6. Georgia

7. Ole Miss

Of the 5 spots remaining, BYU gets one, the North Texas/Tulane winner gets one and Virginia or James Madison (likely) get one.

That leaves 2 spots for Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and Miami. One of those 3 is getting left out.

My most likely guess is that the final spots would sort out like this-

8. Oklahoma

9. Notre Dame

10. BYU

11. Virginia/James Madison

12. North Texas/Tulane

My second most likely;

8. BYU

9. Oklahoma

10. Notre Dame

11. Virginia/James Madison

12. North Texas/Tulane

Possible, though unlikely;

8. BYU

9. Oklahoma

10. Miami or Texas Tech

11. Virginia/James Madison

12. North Texas/Tulane

I'd give scenario 3 about a 20% chance of happening even if BYU and Alabama both win, which I also think has about a 20% chance of happening.

What do I predict?

1. Indiana

2. Georgia

3. Ohio State

4. Oregon

5. Texas A&M

6. Ole Miss

7. Texas Tech

8. Oklahoma

9. Notre Dame

10. Miami

11. Virginia/James Madison

12. North Texas/Tulane

Round 1

Texas A&M over NT/Tulane

Ole Miss over Virginia/Madison

Miami over Texas Tech

Notre Dame over Oklahoma

Round 2

Texas A&M over Oregon

Ohio State over Ole Miss

Miami over Georgia

Notre Dame over Indiana

Round 3

Notre Dame over Texas A&M

Miami over Ohio State

Championship

Notre Dame over Miami